Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BUALOI-19 in Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam from 19 Oct 2019 00:00 UTC to 20 Oct 2019 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BUALOI-19

in Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BUALOI-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	241 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (23 Oct 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	213 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	241 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

213 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2800 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	19 Oct 2019 00:00	167	50 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
2	19 Oct 2019 06:00	130	50 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
3	19 Oct 2019 12:00	157	50 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
4	19 Oct 2019 18:00	194	60 thousand	4 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
5	20 Oct 2019 00:00	204	60 thousand	6 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
6	20 Oct 2019 06:00	213	60 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
7	20 Oct 2019 12:00	213	50 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
8	20 Oct 2019 18:00	213	50 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	10.3, 156.7
2	19 Oct 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	10.8, 155.2
3	19 Oct 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11, 153.7
4	19 Oct 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	11.4, 152.4
5	20 Oct 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	11.6, 151.3
6	20 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	12.2, 150.4
7	20 Oct 2019 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	12.7, 149.8
8	20 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	8700 people	13.3, 149	Northern Mariana Islands
8	21 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	51000 people	14.7, 147.4	Northern Mariana Islands
8	21 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	51000 people	16.2, 145.8	Northern Mariana Islands
8	22 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	17.9, 144.3
8	22 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 4	213	no people	<1000 people	19.6, 142.8
8	23 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 4	213	2800 people	2800 people	23.8, 141.2
8	24 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	1700 people	29.5, 142.7
8	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	35.9, 146.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Iwo To (Iwo Jima)	IWO	113	Mil.	Paved	Yes	8700

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Farallon de Medinilla		Northern Mariana Islands
Minami Lo		Japan
Iwo Jima		Japan
Haha		Japan
Omura		Japan
Muko		Japan

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Higashi, Japan. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2019 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (7 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 20 Oct 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	23 Oct 2019 22:00	Higashi	Japan	0.6
	24 Oct 2019 06:00	Oki	Japan	0.6
	24 Oct 2019 06:00	Hyogidaira	Japan	0.6
	24 Oct 2019 08:00	Omura	Japan	0.5
	24 Oct 2019 08:00	Ogigaura	Japan	0.5
	24 Oct 2019 08:00	Sakaiura	Japan	0.5
	24 Oct 2019 00:00	Ishinomura	Japan	0.3

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.